Could the polls have missed something one day before the US election?

Words by US Correspondent Dan Rivers and Washington News Editor Jonathan Wald
America is facing an election which could redefine this country.
Donald Trump has spent the last day in a hectic gallop around the swing states, starting in North Carolina, where people lined up well before dawn to see him speak at the local sports arena.
His speech lasted over 90 minutes in Raleigh and was far from the disciplined, crafted message of his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris.
He drifted off script for minutes at a time, riffing on everything from immigration to space exploration.
He told the crowd “it was genius, that’s the weave”, referring to his liking for ad-libbing and ignoring the autocue. Though his campaign might have preferred a more concise message.
A poll in Iowa, conducted by the respected pollster Ann Selzer, seized some headlines in America and is still resonating on the eve of the election.
It found Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in the Hawkeye State.
But arguably of more significance, it suggests older white non-college-educated women are breaking late for Harris and may be an indicator of a similar trend in the other critical rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
We spoke to one such woman at an autumn fair near Raleigh. Jeannie Owen is retired and said she has voted for both political parties over the years.
She was coy about telling me who she would be backing this time around, although she didn’t really need to.
When I asked her what she thought of Trump, she puffed her cheeks out and rolled her eyes.
She voted early, like almost half of Americans. Owen explained she made up her mind as she filled out the ballot, said a prayer, and then made her choice.
These “late-breakers,” socially conservative women who are only deciding at the last minute to back Harris, could be a significant political phenomenon in this election.
Might pollsters have missed this demographic and “herded” their results to reflect a toss-up race?
Abortion is one explanation to why women who describe themselves as traditional Republicans are voting for Harris, even if they disagree with her policies on immigration and inflation.
They might fear a national abortion ban under a Trump presidency, even though he’s claimed he would veto such an idea.
They could be making their decision because they are pro-choice, worried about the effects tighter abortion access would have on their daughters and granddaughters.
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Ann Selzer’s poll could be wrong, an “absurd outlier,” as the Trump campaign claims.
But this is the pollster who correctly predicted Barack Obama would win the Iowa primaries in 2008. She has been accurate, within a percentage point, with other predictions in the past.
Selzer’s findings are being taken seriously as Trump heads into the final day of this presidential campaign.
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